Ron Neyer quotes PECOTA in his latest little mail bag and shows that most of the Red Sox hitters will experience a decline from last year's OPS numbers and that only Kevin Millar and Johnny Damon are expected to improve their OPS (and Damon's wasn't very good to begin with last year).

Too bad it doesn't mean much to the O's since their best bet is to finish in third this season and some might even see that as a stretch for the inexperienced rotation lead by the very hefty Sidney Ponson.

Ponson lands a three-year, $22.5 million contract from the O's this offseason and then celebrates by tacking on an extra 15 pounds during the offseason. Word is Sidney entered camp at 264 pounds. That is a lot of weight for a pitcher and the chances of injury are definitely there. Now, he was no feather last season and he could drop some of that weight this spring but that doesn't take away from the fact that he let himself plump up after getting some job security. Could Sir Sidney be reverting back to his old stubborn and lazy ways? I hope not but it certainly appears that he is.